Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high.

EUR traded within a tight range yesterday and closed on a weak note. While upward pressure is waning, another attempt to move towards 1.0870/75 (last November’s high) could not be ruled out just yet even though the odds for such a move are not high. On the downside, EUR has to move clearly below 1.0735 to indicate that a short-term top in place and for the start of a pull-back towards 1.0680.

GBP/USD: Bullish: To take half-profit at 1.2545/50.*

The overnight high of 1.2532 did not quite reach the partialprofit taking indicated previously at 1.2545/50. While the bullish phase that started on Monday is still intact, we believe the rally is running ahead of itself and continue to suggest taking partial profit at 1.2545/50. 

AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend to 0.7555.

While we held the view that the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards 0.7600, the pull-back from the 0.7750 high seen earlier this week has been more impulsive than anticipated. From here, unless AUD can reclaim 0.7700, the downward pressure would continue to increase and a deeper pull-back towards 0.7555 would not be surprising.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range. [No change in view]

As highlighted yesterday, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.7090 earlier this week. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase that could last for several days. Overall, expect sideway trading from here, likely between 0.6950 and 0.7090.

USD/JPY: Neutral: No signs of stabilization just yet.

We still view the current decline as severely over-extended but with no signs of stabilization just yet, another push lower towards 110.00 cannot be ruled out (even though the odds for such a move are not high). All in, the current downward pressure would ease only if USD can move and stay above 112.00.

Analisa Target GBPUSD oleh ABN AMRO Bank

ABN AMRO Research argues that GBP's behavior signals that most of the negative news and Brexit uncertainty is reflected in the price.

"This is also reflected in its under-valuation versus long-run fundamental metrics at current levels, especially versus the US dollar. For instance, the Purchasing Power Parity level for GBP/USD is 1.44," ABN AMRO adds.

On the BoE's front, ABN AMRO's base case is that the central bank will look through the recent rise in inflation and keep interest rates on hold as exchange-rate driven inflation tends to be relatively transient.

"However, recent MPC communication suggests that some members are getting nervous about inflation. So the risks of a rate hike have increased over recent weeks," ABN AMRO adds.

ABN AMRO targets GBP/USD at 1.25 by the end of March. 

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate upwards pressure towards 1.0750.

EUR hit a high of 1.0714 yesterday before pulling back sharply. Despite the pull-back, the undertone is still positive and another attempt higher towards 1.0750 still seems likely (after the current short-term consolidation phase is over). Only a move back below 1.0615 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: In a 1.2100/1.2300 range.

While we indicated yesterday that “GBP is trying to form a base”, the sharp bounce that easily took out the trailing stop-loss for our bearish view at 1.2230 came as a surprise (overnight high of 1.2251). The bearish phase that started earlier this month  has ended and the revised target of 1.2100 was not met (low of 1.2133 last Friday). The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade within a 1.2100/1.2300 range from here.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7490/0.7620 range.

As noted yesterday, the recent pull-back is showing signs of stabilizing but it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. AUD hit a high of 0.7592 but eased off quickly. While the undertone has improved somewhat, we still view the current movement as part of a 0.7490/0.7620 consolidation range.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Early and tentative signs of basing. [No change in view]

As noted last Friday, the pace of the decline in NZD has slowed and it is getting increasingly likely that this pair is trying to form a short-term base. That said, it’s early days yet even though the odds for a break below last December’s low near 0.6860/65 have diminished. In the meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade sideways at these lower levels, likely within a 0.6880/0.6980 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 113.60/116.60 range. [No change in view]

We highlighted last Friday that only a clear break of 115.60 would shift the current neutral outlook to bullish. While a failure to move above this level was not unexpected, the sharp and rapid drop from a high of 115.50 came as a surprise. The recent build-up in upward momentum has eased and while the undertone is still generally positive, USD appears to have move into a 113.60/115.60 consolidation range that could last for several days.

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Strong rebound to extend to 1.0680.

EUR touched a high of 1.0640 but the up-move was quickly reversed. Despite the weak daily closing, the strong rebound from last Friday’s 1.0499 low appears to have scope to extend higher to test 1.0680. At this stage, a clear break of this level is not expected. Support is at 1.0550 but only a move below 1.0520 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Expect further weakness to 1.2200.

Despite the overall bearish indications, the lack of a sustained down-move in GBP is discouraging. However, only a move back above 1.2340 (adjusted from 1.2380) would indicate that the bearish phase that started late last week has ended. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to continue to drift lower towards 1.2200 even though this is a major support and is unlikely to yield so easily (next support is at 1.2150).

AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect further weakness towards 0.7510.

As indicated yesterday, as long as 0.7645 is intact, the sharp drop from the end of last week appears to have room to extend lower towards 0.7510 (with strong intervening support at 0.7545). At this stage, we view the current AUD weakness as a corrective pull-back and a sustained move below 0.7510 is not expected.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Room for extension to 0.6950 but odds are not high.

While we held the view that the immediate pressure is still on the downside, the pace and depth of the decline in NZD continues to surprise. The recent sharp drop is severely oversold now and while further extension to 0.6950 is not ruled out, the odds for such a move are not high. That said, confirmation that the immediate downward pressure has eased is only upon a move back above 0.7050.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Rebound has room to extend to 114.95. [No change in view]

The ‘rebound target’ indicated at 114.95 is not met as USD fell sharply after touching a high of 114.74 last Friday. While the rapid pull-back has dented the upward momentum, another attempt to move towards 114.95 still seems likely. This is a rather strong resistance and is unlikely to break so easily. On downside, support is at 113.50 but only a move below 113.35 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Diminished odds for extension to 1.0450/55.

We highlighted last Friday that “only a move back above 1.0620 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased”. EUR hit a high of 1.0617 during NY hours but eased off from there. However, the pull-back from the top is clearly lacking in momentum and while the immediate pressure is still on the downside, the odds for another leg lower to 1.0450/55 are not high (last week’s 1.0590/95 is already a very strong support). Key short-term resistance remains at 1.0620 for now.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has room to extend lower to 1.2345/50.

The sudden reversal from a high of 1.2570 last Friday and the sharply lower opening early this morning came as a surprise. The rapid swing lower has shifted the pressure to the downside and the current pull-back has scope to extend lower to month-to-date low at 1.2345/50. This is a rather strong support and at this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. Overall, GBP is expected to stay under pressure in the next few days unless it can reclaim 1.2540 (1.2500 is already a very strong shorter-term resistance).

AUD/USD: Bullish: To take half profit at 0.7775/80.

The stop-loss for our bullish view at 0.7660 is barely intact as AUD touched a low of 0.7662 earlier. It is increasingly likely that the 3-week bullish phase is coming to an end. Only a sustained move back above 0.7710 would improve the prospect for another leg higher to 0.7775/80.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Back in range, likely between 0.7130 and 0.7260.

NZD eased off quickly without testing the major 0.7290 resistance (high of 0.7238 last Friday). The short-term upward pressure has eased and this pair has likely moved back into a consolidation phase, likely between 0.7130 and 0.7260.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Room for a test of major 111.55/60 support.

While we indicated that a test of 112.30 would not be surprising, the ease of which this strong support was taken out was unexpected (low of 111.91 on Friday). The pressure is still on the downside and there is room for the current weakness to extend lower towards the major 111.55/60 support (low seen earlier this month). Stabilization is only upon a move back above 113.00.

Looking at next week, positive surprises from Eurozone flash HICP data may offer some support for EUR. That said, any bounce may be sold into by still wary FX investors.... In our portfolio we remain short EUR against USD in spot and JPY via options. (Credit Agricole CIB Investment Bank)

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0580/1.0750 range.

EUR registered an ‘inside day bar’ last Friday but closed near the low of the day. While there is no change to the current neutral view, the weak daily closing suggests that the short-term bias is tilted to the downside. A move below the expected 1.0580/1.0750 consolidation range would not be surprising but based on the current lackluster downward momentum; any decline is expected to struggle to move below last week’s low near 1.0530. Resistance is at 1.0670 and the top-end of the expected consolidation range at 1.0750 is likely strong enough to cap any EUR strength, at least for the next several days.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Early and tentative signs of a break lower.

While the neutral phase that started early this month is still in place, there are early and tentative signs that the recent consolidation could be resolved to the downside (last Friday’s close is the weakest in one month). That said, GBP has to break clearly below 1.2350 to indicate that a move towards 1.2250 (and likely below) has started. Overall, the immediate downward pressure is expected to increase further unless GBP can reclaim the very strong resistance at 1.2530.

AUD/USD: Bullish: To take half profit at 0.7775/80.

AUD dropped to a low of 0.7656 last Friday, not much higher than the stop-loss for our bullish view at 0.7640. The odds for another leg higher to 0.7775/80 have diminished further but only a break of 0.7640 would indicate that a temporary top is in place. In the meanwhile, those are who are long should continue to look to take half profit at 0.7775/80 even though the prospect for such a move is not high.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7150/0.7320 range.

There is not much to add as NZD traded in a relatively narrow range last Friday. That said, the immediate bias has shifted slightly to the downside and a move below the expected 0.7150/0.7320 consolidation range would not be surprising (even though last week’s low at 0.7135 is expected to offer solid support).

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 112.30/114.50 range. [No change in view]

The up-move from the 111.55/60 low last week has likely found a temporary top at 114.95 two days ago. From here, USD is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade between 112.30 and 114.50.

SEKIAN TERIMAKASIH

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Konsultan Investasi

Berita Forex Hari Ini

Fokus Forex Mingguan Menurut Morgan Stanley (Investment Banking)

USD: Back to 'Good' USD Strength. Neutral.

We think the USD has scaled back to levels where it could resume its rally. The risk outlook remains positive as US financial conditions have eased and global trade data has improved, implying that the 'good' USD strength may be back in play. Yellen's speeches this week will be in focus. We look for commentary on whether she will stick with herview of three hikes this year. With the markets only pricing a 25% chance of a March Fed hike, there is potential for her to surprise hawkishly, supporting USD strength.

EUR: Reacting to Peripheral Spreads. Bearish.*

Eurozone political risks have come into focus, causing peripheral spreads to widen, with investors starting to sell the EUR, which was previously not reacting to the rates market. With wide peripheral spreads and inflation divergence within the euro area, the ECB is unlikely to remove monetary accommodation anytime soon, which will push yield differentials against EUR. We expect further downside for EURUSD and EURJPY. A break of the 50DMA around 1.06 for EURUSD will provide significant downside momentum for the pair.

JPY: 112 Still Supported. Bearish.*

The JPY has strengthened recently in line with Eurozone-related risk worries. Japanese investors own a lot of EURdenominated bonds (especially France) suggesting that any increased volatility could cause a setback in our JPY view, by putting downward pressure on EURJPY. USDJPY has however failed to break materially below 112, keeping us in the long trade for now. The BoJ has made theiryield curve control strategy extremely clear, which should help the JPY weaken.

GBP: Carney Keeps Real Rates Low. Bearish.

GBPUSD should see a bit more downside as the market more fully understands the BoE's dovish stance. Carney justified the low bank rate by saying there was still slack in the economy. We find that GBPUSD doesn't fully reflect the recent fall in UK real rates, which could fall further if UK CPI is strong this week. A sustained break below the 1.2430 area should allow the final leg down to below 1.2000.

CHF: Peripheral Spreads Drive CHF. Neutral.

We continue to expect the SNB to limit the downside for EURCHF in the short term. In times of market uncertainty in the Eurozone and peripheral spread widening, we would look to sell EURCHF as a political hedge. We are not looking to buy USDCHF, even if it has moved to more desirable levels.

AUD: Staying Short. Bearish.*

While the RBA sounded more optimistic on growth and less worried about the AUD, which is justified by the surge in its terms of trade, we remain cautious on the currency. Australia's economic data has disappointed while the rest of G10 has seen data improve, as evidenced by the latest CPI reading. China's data also has not improved and the authorities are tightening monetary conditions, which could weigh on growth and spillover into Australian economic data.

NZD: Risks from Positioning. Neutral. 

Despite the RBNZ removing their easing bias and sending a balanced message in the latest meeting, NZD has weakened as market expectations were too high going into the meeting, with 23bp of rate hikes priced in and investors being long NZD. AUDNZD has broken through the 100DMA and 200DMA decisively, giving scope for a bit more NZD weakness as positioning continues to adjust. However, the downside would likely be limited as New Zealand's economic data and inflation are on an improving trend.