Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high.

EUR traded within a tight range yesterday and closed on a weak note. While upward pressure is waning, another attempt to move towards 1.0870/75 (last November’s high) could not be ruled out just yet even though the odds for such a move are not high. On the downside, EUR has to move clearly below 1.0735 to indicate that a short-term top in place and for the start of a pull-back towards 1.0680.

GBP/USD: Bullish: To take half-profit at 1.2545/50.*

The overnight high of 1.2532 did not quite reach the partialprofit taking indicated previously at 1.2545/50. While the bullish phase that started on Monday is still intact, we believe the rally is running ahead of itself and continue to suggest taking partial profit at 1.2545/50. 

AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend to 0.7555.

While we held the view that the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards 0.7600, the pull-back from the 0.7750 high seen earlier this week has been more impulsive than anticipated. From here, unless AUD can reclaim 0.7700, the downward pressure would continue to increase and a deeper pull-back towards 0.7555 would not be surprising.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range. [No change in view]

As highlighted yesterday, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.7090 earlier this week. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase that could last for several days. Overall, expect sideway trading from here, likely between 0.6950 and 0.7090.

USD/JPY: Neutral: No signs of stabilization just yet.

We still view the current decline as severely over-extended but with no signs of stabilization just yet, another push lower towards 110.00 cannot be ruled out (even though the odds for such a move are not high). All in, the current downward pressure would ease only if USD can move and stay above 112.00.

Analisa Target GBPUSD oleh ABN AMRO Bank

ABN AMRO Research argues that GBP's behavior signals that most of the negative news and Brexit uncertainty is reflected in the price.

"This is also reflected in its under-valuation versus long-run fundamental metrics at current levels, especially versus the US dollar. For instance, the Purchasing Power Parity level for GBP/USD is 1.44," ABN AMRO adds.

On the BoE's front, ABN AMRO's base case is that the central bank will look through the recent rise in inflation and keep interest rates on hold as exchange-rate driven inflation tends to be relatively transient.

"However, recent MPC communication suggests that some members are getting nervous about inflation. So the risks of a rate hike have increased over recent weeks," ABN AMRO adds.

ABN AMRO targets GBP/USD at 1.25 by the end of March. 

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate upwards pressure towards 1.0750.

EUR hit a high of 1.0714 yesterday before pulling back sharply. Despite the pull-back, the undertone is still positive and another attempt higher towards 1.0750 still seems likely (after the current short-term consolidation phase is over). Only a move back below 1.0615 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: In a 1.2100/1.2300 range.

While we indicated yesterday that “GBP is trying to form a base”, the sharp bounce that easily took out the trailing stop-loss for our bearish view at 1.2230 came as a surprise (overnight high of 1.2251). The bearish phase that started earlier this month  has ended and the revised target of 1.2100 was not met (low of 1.2133 last Friday). The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade within a 1.2100/1.2300 range from here.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7490/0.7620 range.

As noted yesterday, the recent pull-back is showing signs of stabilizing but it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. AUD hit a high of 0.7592 but eased off quickly. While the undertone has improved somewhat, we still view the current movement as part of a 0.7490/0.7620 consolidation range.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Early and tentative signs of basing. [No change in view]

As noted last Friday, the pace of the decline in NZD has slowed and it is getting increasingly likely that this pair is trying to form a short-term base. That said, it’s early days yet even though the odds for a break below last December’s low near 0.6860/65 have diminished. In the meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade sideways at these lower levels, likely within a 0.6880/0.6980 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 113.60/116.60 range. [No change in view]

We highlighted last Friday that only a clear break of 115.60 would shift the current neutral outlook to bullish. While a failure to move above this level was not unexpected, the sharp and rapid drop from a high of 115.50 came as a surprise. The recent build-up in upward momentum has eased and while the undertone is still generally positive, USD appears to have move into a 113.60/115.60 consolidation range that could last for several days.

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Strong rebound to extend to 1.0680.

EUR touched a high of 1.0640 but the up-move was quickly reversed. Despite the weak daily closing, the strong rebound from last Friday’s 1.0499 low appears to have scope to extend higher to test 1.0680. At this stage, a clear break of this level is not expected. Support is at 1.0550 but only a move below 1.0520 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Expect further weakness to 1.2200.

Despite the overall bearish indications, the lack of a sustained down-move in GBP is discouraging. However, only a move back above 1.2340 (adjusted from 1.2380) would indicate that the bearish phase that started late last week has ended. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to continue to drift lower towards 1.2200 even though this is a major support and is unlikely to yield so easily (next support is at 1.2150).

AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect further weakness towards 0.7510.

As indicated yesterday, as long as 0.7645 is intact, the sharp drop from the end of last week appears to have room to extend lower towards 0.7510 (with strong intervening support at 0.7545). At this stage, we view the current AUD weakness as a corrective pull-back and a sustained move below 0.7510 is not expected.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Room for extension to 0.6950 but odds are not high.

While we held the view that the immediate pressure is still on the downside, the pace and depth of the decline in NZD continues to surprise. The recent sharp drop is severely oversold now and while further extension to 0.6950 is not ruled out, the odds for such a move are not high. That said, confirmation that the immediate downward pressure has eased is only upon a move back above 0.7050.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Rebound has room to extend to 114.95. [No change in view]

The ‘rebound target’ indicated at 114.95 is not met as USD fell sharply after touching a high of 114.74 last Friday. While the rapid pull-back has dented the upward momentum, another attempt to move towards 114.95 still seems likely. This is a rather strong resistance and is unlikely to break so easily. On downside, support is at 113.50 but only a move below 113.35 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.