EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high.
EUR traded within a tight range yesterday and closed on a weak note. While upward pressure is waning, another attempt to move towards 1.0870/75 (last November’s high) could not be ruled out just yet even though the odds for such a move are not high. On the downside, EUR has to move clearly below 1.0735 to indicate that a short-term top in place and for the start of a pull-back towards 1.0680.
GBP/USD: Bullish: To take half-profit at 1.2545/50.*
The overnight high of 1.2532 did not quite reach the partialprofit taking indicated previously at 1.2545/50. While the bullish phase that started on Monday is still intact, we believe the rally is running ahead of itself and continue to suggest taking partial profit at 1.2545/50.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend to 0.7555.
While we held the view that the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards 0.7600, the pull-back from the 0.7750 high seen earlier this week has been more impulsive than anticipated. From here, unless AUD can reclaim 0.7700, the downward pressure would continue to increase and a deeper pull-back towards 0.7555 would not be surprising.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range. [No change in view]
As highlighted yesterday, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.7090 earlier this week. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase that could last for several days. Overall, expect sideway trading from here, likely between 0.6950 and 0.7090.
USD/JPY: Neutral: No signs of stabilization just yet.
We still view the current decline as severely over-extended but with no signs of stabilization just yet, another push lower towards 110.00 cannot be ruled out (even though the odds for such a move are not high). All in, the current downward pressure would ease only if USD can move and stay above 112.00.
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