Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: Diminished odds for extension to 1.0450/55.

We highlighted last Friday that “only a move back above 1.0620 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased”. EUR hit a high of 1.0617 during NY hours but eased off from there. However, the pull-back from the top is clearly lacking in momentum and while the immediate pressure is still on the downside, the odds for another leg lower to 1.0450/55 are not high (last week’s 1.0590/95 is already a very strong support). Key short-term resistance remains at 1.0620 for now.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has room to extend lower to 1.2345/50.

The sudden reversal from a high of 1.2570 last Friday and the sharply lower opening early this morning came as a surprise. The rapid swing lower has shifted the pressure to the downside and the current pull-back has scope to extend lower to month-to-date low at 1.2345/50. This is a rather strong support and at this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. Overall, GBP is expected to stay under pressure in the next few days unless it can reclaim 1.2540 (1.2500 is already a very strong shorter-term resistance).

AUD/USD: Bullish: To take half profit at 0.7775/80.

The stop-loss for our bullish view at 0.7660 is barely intact as AUD touched a low of 0.7662 earlier. It is increasingly likely that the 3-week bullish phase is coming to an end. Only a sustained move back above 0.7710 would improve the prospect for another leg higher to 0.7775/80.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Back in range, likely between 0.7130 and 0.7260.

NZD eased off quickly without testing the major 0.7290 resistance (high of 0.7238 last Friday). The short-term upward pressure has eased and this pair has likely moved back into a consolidation phase, likely between 0.7130 and 0.7260.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Room for a test of major 111.55/60 support.

While we indicated that a test of 112.30 would not be surprising, the ease of which this strong support was taken out was unexpected (low of 111.91 on Friday). The pressure is still on the downside and there is room for the current weakness to extend lower towards the major 111.55/60 support (low seen earlier this month). Stabilization is only upon a move back above 113.00.

Looking at next week, positive surprises from Eurozone flash HICP data may offer some support for EUR. That said, any bounce may be sold into by still wary FX investors.... In our portfolio we remain short EUR against USD in spot and JPY via options. (Credit Agricole CIB Investment Bank)

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0580/1.0750 range.

EUR registered an ‘inside day bar’ last Friday but closed near the low of the day. While there is no change to the current neutral view, the weak daily closing suggests that the short-term bias is tilted to the downside. A move below the expected 1.0580/1.0750 consolidation range would not be surprising but based on the current lackluster downward momentum; any decline is expected to struggle to move below last week’s low near 1.0530. Resistance is at 1.0670 and the top-end of the expected consolidation range at 1.0750 is likely strong enough to cap any EUR strength, at least for the next several days.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Early and tentative signs of a break lower.

While the neutral phase that started early this month is still in place, there are early and tentative signs that the recent consolidation could be resolved to the downside (last Friday’s close is the weakest in one month). That said, GBP has to break clearly below 1.2350 to indicate that a move towards 1.2250 (and likely below) has started. Overall, the immediate downward pressure is expected to increase further unless GBP can reclaim the very strong resistance at 1.2530.

AUD/USD: Bullish: To take half profit at 0.7775/80.

AUD dropped to a low of 0.7656 last Friday, not much higher than the stop-loss for our bullish view at 0.7640. The odds for another leg higher to 0.7775/80 have diminished further but only a break of 0.7640 would indicate that a temporary top is in place. In the meanwhile, those are who are long should continue to look to take half profit at 0.7775/80 even though the prospect for such a move is not high.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7150/0.7320 range.

There is not much to add as NZD traded in a relatively narrow range last Friday. That said, the immediate bias has shifted slightly to the downside and a move below the expected 0.7150/0.7320 consolidation range would not be surprising (even though last week’s low at 0.7135 is expected to offer solid support).

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 112.30/114.50 range. [No change in view]

The up-move from the 111.55/60 low last week has likely found a temporary top at 114.95 two days ago. From here, USD is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade between 112.30 and 114.50.

SEKIAN TERIMAKASIH

Salam

Konsultan Investasi

Berita Forex Hari Ini

Fokus Forex Mingguan Menurut Morgan Stanley (Investment Banking)

USD: Back to 'Good' USD Strength. Neutral.

We think the USD has scaled back to levels where it could resume its rally. The risk outlook remains positive as US financial conditions have eased and global trade data has improved, implying that the 'good' USD strength may be back in play. Yellen's speeches this week will be in focus. We look for commentary on whether she will stick with herview of three hikes this year. With the markets only pricing a 25% chance of a March Fed hike, there is potential for her to surprise hawkishly, supporting USD strength.

EUR: Reacting to Peripheral Spreads. Bearish.*

Eurozone political risks have come into focus, causing peripheral spreads to widen, with investors starting to sell the EUR, which was previously not reacting to the rates market. With wide peripheral spreads and inflation divergence within the euro area, the ECB is unlikely to remove monetary accommodation anytime soon, which will push yield differentials against EUR. We expect further downside for EURUSD and EURJPY. A break of the 50DMA around 1.06 for EURUSD will provide significant downside momentum for the pair.

JPY: 112 Still Supported. Bearish.*

The JPY has strengthened recently in line with Eurozone-related risk worries. Japanese investors own a lot of EURdenominated bonds (especially France) suggesting that any increased volatility could cause a setback in our JPY view, by putting downward pressure on EURJPY. USDJPY has however failed to break materially below 112, keeping us in the long trade for now. The BoJ has made theiryield curve control strategy extremely clear, which should help the JPY weaken.

GBP: Carney Keeps Real Rates Low. Bearish.

GBPUSD should see a bit more downside as the market more fully understands the BoE's dovish stance. Carney justified the low bank rate by saying there was still slack in the economy. We find that GBPUSD doesn't fully reflect the recent fall in UK real rates, which could fall further if UK CPI is strong this week. A sustained break below the 1.2430 area should allow the final leg down to below 1.2000.

CHF: Peripheral Spreads Drive CHF. Neutral.

We continue to expect the SNB to limit the downside for EURCHF in the short term. In times of market uncertainty in the Eurozone and peripheral spread widening, we would look to sell EURCHF as a political hedge. We are not looking to buy USDCHF, even if it has moved to more desirable levels.

AUD: Staying Short. Bearish.*

While the RBA sounded more optimistic on growth and less worried about the AUD, which is justified by the surge in its terms of trade, we remain cautious on the currency. Australia's economic data has disappointed while the rest of G10 has seen data improve, as evidenced by the latest CPI reading. China's data also has not improved and the authorities are tightening monetary conditions, which could weigh on growth and spillover into Australian economic data.

NZD: Risks from Positioning. Neutral. 

Despite the RBNZ removing their easing bias and sending a balanced message in the latest meeting, NZD has weakened as market expectations were too high going into the meeting, with 23bp of rate hikes priced in and investors being long NZD. AUDNZD has broken through the 100DMA and 200DMA decisively, giving scope for a bit more NZD weakness as positioning continues to adjust. However, the downside would likely be limited as New Zealand's economic data and inflation are on an improving trend.

Technical Target Berdasarkan Analisis UOB Bank

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0700/1.0830 range.

We indicated yesterday that the recent downward pressure has eased and that EUR has likely moved into a 1.0700/1.0830 consolidation range. There is no change to the view even looking further ahead, the upside appears to be more vulnerable but EUR has to ‘punch above’ 1.0830 or the recent lackluster price action would likely persist. On the downside, 1.0700 is expected to hold but a clear break below this level would indicate that a deeper pull-back towards the late January low of 1.0615/20 has started.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2400/1.2730 range.

GBP traded in a rather tight 77 pips range yesterday (between 1.2427 and 1.2504), the narrowest daily range in more than a month. The listless trading is in line with the neutral outlook and at this stage, we continue to hold the view that GBP is trading within a broad 1.2400/1.2730 range.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Anticipating a break above 0.7700.* [No change in view]

We turned bullish AUD last Friday and there is no change to the view. The ‘buying level’ indicated at 0.7620/25 was met as AUD dipped to a low of 0.7619 during NY hours. From here, as long as 0.7595 is intact (stop-loss adjusted from 0.7560), we continue to anticipate a break of the strong 0.7700 resistance. A clear break of this level is expected to lead to acceleration higher towards last November’s top near 0.7775/80.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Focus shift to 0.7400.

NZD just broke above the recent peak at 0.7350 at the time of writing (high of 0.7364 so far). As noted in recent updates, a clear break above this level would indicate that the next leg higher towards 0.7400 has started. 

USD/JPY: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure towards 111.30.

While we held the view that the improved downward momentum could lead to a ‘grudging’ move lower towards 111.30, the ease of which the major 112.00 support was taken out came as a surprise (low of 111.60 so far). With no signs of stabilization just yet, we continue to expect a move to 111.30 where a break could lead to further weakness towards 110.00. Only a move above the short-term key resistance at 112.90 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has ease.

Salam konsultaninvestasi.com